Жэнь Цзюньэн
Колебания цен на нефть на международном рынке в посткризисный период, а также будущие тенденции: с многочисленно–равновесным взглядом
Международная Академия Бизнеса, Алматы, Розыбакиева 227, 050060
Ren Junen
The fluctuations in international oil price at post-crisis era as well as the future trend: a multiple-equilibrium view
International Academy of Business, Almaty, Rozybakieva 227, 050060
On the basis of making analysis on the long-term and short-term characteristic fact of the fluctuations in international oil price, this article established an international oil price change model from a multiple-equilibrium view, and also forecasted the possible future tend of international oil price during post-financial crisis era. This article believes that, in the next several years, the continuous rise in international oil price is an irreversible trend. Furthermore, affected by the expectation on global economic recovery as well as the increasing supply and demand contradiction of oil resource, the international average oil price will keep shocks in the next several years.
Key words: international oil price, multiple equilibrium mode, short-tem fluctuations, long-term tendency.