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Зикунова В. С.

Инвестиционные управленческие решения: фактор менталитета

Хабаровская государственная академия экономики и права

Private investments have a significant meaning for financing all the sectors of a national economy, therefore increase in investment activity of households and corporate investors is an integral part of economic growth. A major bottleneck in investment activity of Russian households and corporate investors is a unidirectional infusion of capital into bank deposits. It is a low-yielding form of investment; it does not contribute to realization of strategically important projects and threatens with recurrence of the 2008 scenario. That is why a critical importance is now given to a study of interrelation between mentality and structure of private investments through a cross-country collation.

Investment managerial decisions are taken in the conditions of insufficient information and uncertainty. An investor’s behavior is also indeterminate due to specificity of human psychology. In most cases private investors follow intuitive and irrational judgments; therefore in order to define factors of private investment structure it is necessary to investigate the incentives of a private investor’s behavior.

Process of investment decision-making considerably differs for investor-objectivist, who possesses certain information about the prospects of developments, and investor-subjectivist, who acts in conditions of insufficient information. For the objectivist, game value is equal to an average expected NPV, while his purpose is maximization of NPV. Subjective decision-making depends on appetite of an investor for risk that is determined by ratio of game value to expected NPV. So, value system of the population, proneness for risk and even moods to a large extent affect macroeconomic structure of private investments.

Attitude toward risk is one of the national mentality characteristics varying among different countries as well as attitude toward wealth, governmental power and authority itself, level of confidence to people, key issues in upbringing of children, religious beliefs.

Our hypothesis implies that in any country a structure of investments depends on distinguishing features of mentality. To test the hypothesis we used tools of correlation and regression analysis of investment structure by the level of risk depending on score values of value judgments of population in 27 countries.

Investment structure is esteemed by the level of risk and profitability, while the value judgments are considered in frame of classification by 2 characteristics: traditional versus secular-rational values and survival versus self-expression values. The classification was worked out within the international project World Values Survey (WVS). The first characteristic reflects contrast between nations by the extent of religiosity and conservatism of beliefs: thus, adherents of secular-rational values are active, cosmopolitical and critical, and citizens of the countries with traditional values are patriotic, passive and religious. The second characteristic illustrates differences between materialistic and post-materialistic societies. Citizens of the countries with priorities of self-expression take an active part in capital flow and simultaneously demonstrate a very pronounced post-materialistic motivation, while citizens of the countries with survival values strive only for increase of their material wealth. We suppose that investment structure in the countries with priorities of self-expression has more risky and unstandardized formation than that in the countries with survival values.

To prove the hypothesis we chose 27 countries representing 9 areas of the World Map of value judgments that has been worked out within the WVS Project. Investment structure is distinguished by weights of certain investment forms in the total volume of investigated investment forms; thus, extent of risk of the capital injections made in every country is reflected.

The results show that citizens of Protestant European countries show high tolerance and religiosity at once, they are cosmopolitical and open-minded. They show a strong demand for long-term bonds testifying orientation of investors on long time lag and their awareness of the market development prospects. Countries of Catholic Europe have lower indexes of self-expression that neighboring protestants. Bank deposits and securities of large companies dominate in the structure of national investments. Investors from English-speaking countries are pragmatic and have a high appetite for risk, their interests expand onto the foreign capital markets. Risky instruments (direct investments and equity investments) prevail over the other investment forms. Citizens of Latin America show high level of interpersonal distrust and no appetite for material wealth, they take a dim view of fortune and prefer traditional sources of income. Investment structure demonstrates decrease of securities’ share and next to absence of direct investments. African investors place a high importance on survival values, the investment structure is characterized by dominance of bank deposits and governmental bonds. Residents of Muslim countries are conservative and religious, incredulous, ready for risk and lay stress on discipline. They are interested in direct infusions in investment projects and different property forms and buy governmental bonds, too. In South-Asian countries both value characteristics have mean levels. Nevertheless, investment structure varies among investigated countries: Vietnamese prefer bank deposits, Indians – governmental bonds. Investors of Confucian countries are patriotic and thriftily regard their savings, prefer bank deposits and direct investments. Post-communistic countries possess a larger aptitude toward secular-rational values than Confucian countries. A specific feature of their investment preferences is the interest in short-term bonds which give a speculative and high income and bear a low risk.

Hypothesis on existence of interrelation between mentality and structure of private investments was verified as for post-materialistic values and such forms of investment as direct investments, infusions in equity capital, long-term bonds and bank deposits; as for traditional values and investments in long-term bonds.

Analysis of Russian mentality showed that typical behavior of potential Russian investor is pessimism, inactivity and preference of stable salary to all other forms of income. This feature found reflection in the national investment structure with a large share of bank deposits. This form of investment satisfies materialistic needs of investors: low degree of risk and economic safety, almost no necessity to waste time on managing personal savings, primitive character, no requirements to quality of information or qualified analysis of trends in development of financial markets. It is also a well-tried investment instrument, repeatedly used by plenty of private investors.

Nevertheless, according to Inglehart’s theory, post-war generations will be gradually tending towards post-materialistic values, and according to our hypothesis, it will affect the investment preferences.

To raise efficiency of investment activity in Russia and diversify structure of private investments we suggest two alternative solutions: development of traditional sectors of investment and post-materialistic education of future generations.

The first way implies raising attractiveness of bank deposits through prolongation of short-term bank deposits on concessionary basis, decreasing risks of long-term lending, establishment of investment institutions as subsidiary organizations of banks or specialized investment banks.

The second way means raising accessibility and quality of education, financial literacy of population, establishment of trustworthy relations between law enforcement agencies and population, enlarging access of economic subjects to information resources, intensification of charitable activity, resolution of social problems, financing of wholesome production on concessionary basis and expansion of intellectual communities. These measures will create favorable conditions for literate and free activity of private investors and creation of auspicious social climate in the country.



Секции-октябрь 2011
  • "Научные исследования и их практическое применение. Современное состояние и пути развития.'2011"
  • Дата: Октябрь 2011 года
  • Проведение: www.sworld.com.ua
  • Рабочие языки: Украинский, Русский, Английский.
  • Председатель: Доктор технических наук, проф.Шибаев А.Г.
  • Тех.менеджмент: к.т.н. Куприенко С.В., Федорова А.Д.

  • Сборник научных трудов SWorld по материалам международной научно-практической конференции.